On the eve of elections
This is a guest post from Alex Stein of falsedichotomies.com
For the first time in my life, I’m about to cast a vote that really counts. My excuses for my apathy towards Britain’s first-past-the-post system no longer apply; Israel’s pure system of proportional representation means that my voice can indeed make a difference. With this responsibility, though, come a number of tough dilemmas. Is it a choice between Tzipi and Bibi? Are all the leading candidates broadly similar? Is it right to pretend I am voting for Prime Minister, while ignoring the rest of the names on the party list? Should I ignore the race for the top and focus on strengthening a smaller party? All these questions remain unanswered, which is why I remain – even this later in the day – an undecided voter.
A few months ago I was a Livni supporter, and I’ve even done an ickle bit of campaigning for her. This commitment emerged from literal waking nightmares about Bibi returning as Prime Minister, a deeply felt sense of tragedy that America was voting Obama just as we were about to vote for Bush. In short, I felt the stars were finally aligning. Over the last two years Livni has demonstrated her commitment to the diplomatic path with the PA, a path that would be spurred on by unprecedented goodwill from the international community should she be elected. Or at least that was my assumption. Moreover, there is something refreshingly down-to-earth about her, and she seems to be free from the stain of corruption that has blotted the career of so many of her counterparts.
Doubts set in during Operation Cast Lead. She didn’t do a good job in front of the foreign media, and was far too gung-ho about Israel’s war aims, making absurd claims about toppling Hamas, claims that couldn’t possibly be fulfilled. Even since the ‘ceasefire’ she’s continued down this path, demanding that Israel go in hard after every rocket fire, walking into the trap set for her by Barak, according to which everything she says will be characterized as lacking experience. I know that she’s caught in a bind: sexism has characterized both of the other candidates’ attacks on her, and she’s damned if she does and damned if she’s doesn’t. Plus I’m aware she’s electioneering. But there’s been something quite ugly about her rhetoric in recent week, an ugliness that has significantly curbed my enthusiasm.
Barak will be Barak. Whatever’s good for him will be promoted like the greatest policy in the world. With Bibi and Livni sloshing it out to prove who’s the toughest, he’s suddenly holding court at Ben Gurion University about building a tunnel between the West Bank and Gaza. I’m familiar with all this, yet have still been relatively impressed with his performance over the last few weeks, particularly since the ‘end’ of hostilities in Gaza. I’m not impressed enough, however, to give him my vote. He had his chance, and I see no compelling reason why he should be given another.
The same applies to Bibi. He’s transparently an awful guy, but politically he’s not quite as bad as they all say. The truth is he has no strategic plan towards the Palestinians. He talks up his idea of economic peace like the messiah’s on his way, but without offering political hope it will amount to nothing. At the same time, though, I don’t think there’s any reason to fear some kind of major settlement expansion. While he stands at the head of what is essentially a far-right party, he’s also the one Israeli leader most in thrall of American power. For all the rhetoric, he knows when to be subservient, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some sort of surprise withdrawal – albeit ultimately of a symbolic kind – during his reign.
So how might the winning coalition shape up? The irony is that Bibi would probably bring in Labor while Livni may yet end up sitting down with Lieberman. While some polls optimistically show Livni edging out Bibi, none of them show the left-wing drop defeating the right-wing bloc (the Arab parties, of course, remain in limbo). I don’t see how Livni can form a coalition without bringing in either Shas or Yisrael Beitenu. We saw what happened when she tried to play nice with Eli Yishai and co back in November, and there’s no reason to think that anything will change this time around. Which leaves Lieberman. Amidst all the justified furor over his remarks about oaths and Israeli-Arabs, it’s easy to forget that he’s not fundamentally opposed to a large-scale withdrawal from the West Bank, or indeed to a Palestinian state. He also has to deliver on civil marriages, which suddenly puts him in bed with the left. Bibi has not yet managed to work out how to play Lieberman, who seems to be pinching votes off him right to the last. Plus Bibi wants a broad-based coalition, to try and show the world they’ve got nothing to worry about.
In some ways, then, a vote for Livni is a vote for Lieberman. One of the big reasons I’m turned off the major parties is their support of the bill to ban Balad and Raam Taal from the elections. The Supreme Court may have overruled this decision, but the damage had already been done. Needless to say, Lieberman supported this measure and then some. Israeli politics is a dirty game, of course, and it’s to be expected that people will engage in some particularly dramatic swinging. For me to vote for Livni now, though, given all of the above, I’d have to be really convinced that she’s going to make the breakthrough with the Palestinians. On this, I’m still to be convinced.
Of course, my most natural bedfellows are Meretz-Yachad, but they remain too elitist, and I can’t stand Amos Oz playing Ovadia Yosef to the café-dwellers. Which leaves Meimad-Yeruka, an intriguing hybrid of environmentalism and liberal orthodoxy. They first caught my eye in Umm-el-Fahm, when a long time Arab Hadash voter told me he was considering switching his allegiances to the new boys. Their central contention is that the environment is the only issue which can actually unite the whole country, and it’s with this banner that they’re trying to win over voters from across the ethnic and political divide. They’re not bound to the old ideological assumptions, and their presence in an increasingly stagnant political arena is refreshing. The question is will they pass their threshold, or will supporting them be a wasted vote?
These are my dilemmas. I’m not sure I’ll solve them until I find myself in the booth. In the meantime, advice from the esteemed readership of Harry’s Place is actively encouraged…
Comments
| 4 February 2009, 1:07 pm |
It’s tough with so many parties. Unfortunately, I think Bibi will win which I do not understand in the least. I would vote Meretz. Sure, they are elitist, but it’s not like they are going to win or anything. I too see a Likud-Labor government coming…
| 4 February 2009, 1:08 pm |
Was this not signed? Are we allowed to have a name?
| 4 February 2009, 1:10 pm |
Sorry – it’s me. just added the name now…
| 4 February 2009, 1:24 pm |
Alex,
Out of interest, of what importance are other issues such as the economy, healthcare, education, etc playing in these elections? Do they mean anything, or in the grand scheme of things, there is only one thing – the peace process and surrounding issues – that matter?
| 4 February 2009, 1:33 pm |
I love voting. And I really love voting in Israel. The excitement of the coalitions… It is wonderful.
I am mostly decided to vote for Kadima. The center must hold!
| 4 February 2009, 1:38 pm |
Alex, interesting question. I haven’t talked to any Israeli voters who are actually decided at this stage for what it’s worth – for many of the reasons that you describe.
There is a confusion about democracy which suggests that it is the best system for choosing the best government. Not so: it is the best system for rejecting the worst government.
The problem with Israel’s pure PR is that it’s too confusing to work out how to do this.
My voting aim would be to keep Shas and Yisrael Beteinu out of power. But following your logic, I’d have to vote Bibi to achieve this.
And who knows how the coalition haggling would go? We could end up with a narrow right-wing coalition led by Bibi. Total nightmare.
But a national unity government of Labour-Kadima-Likud could be what’s needed to deliver peace, with Bibi keeping hold of the non-mad settler right.
Barak is flawed, yes. And Labour is weak now. But I’d probably vote Labour in the end and hope that the left has enough MKs to keep Bibi away from the right and Lieberman.
| 4 February 2009, 1:52 pm |
I love voting. And I really love voting in Israel. The excitement of the coalitions… It is wonderful.
Wish I could say the same thing. I was enthusiastic when Sharon was around, but now it’s hard to be enthused with any of them.
I am mostly decided to vote for Kadima. The center must hold!
Each time that there has been a center party in the past it ends up dissolving. Kadima exists only because Sharon was popular with the people but not popular with the Likud central committee. It seems to be persisting because many people dislike Bibi so much.
| 4 February 2009, 1:53 pm |
‘For the first time in my life, I’m about to cast a vote that really counts’ – if only it was so, the curiosity of Israeli election system is it allows small parties that command a small share of the popular vote to gain disproportionate hold over the political process – this is why the religious parties have since the inception of the state have dominated Israel’s home office and Education ministries, have been able to negotiate opt outs from the IDF for their children and funding for their Yeshiva’s (again disproportionate to funding secular Israeli schools receive.)
The lesson is that a vote for Shas or any of the other Religious parties is worth more than a vote for Likud, Kadima or Labour.
| 4 February 2009, 2:21 pm |
I am mostly decided to vote for Kadima. The center must hold!
Right on, I would too. I also like Livni. Apparently she will be the choice of most wavering female voters. Not sure about her campaigning style though, just saw a photo of her attempting to DJ in some nightclub, a bit cringe-worthy.
| 4 February 2009, 2:23 pm |
Well, as ever, we’d ask anyone in Israel who supports common and democratic ownership and control of the means and instruments for producing and distributing wealth to indicate this support (and their lack of support for any capitalist party) by writing “World socialism” (or its equivilent in any other language) across their ballot paper.
| 4 February 2009, 2:24 pm |
I’m compiling 100 reasons to vote Green Movement-Meimad. Should be online by Shabbat. Kol Tov.
| 4 February 2009, 2:27 pm |
Alex, I don’t envy your need to choose in this election; there really aren’t any good options, are there? The prospect of Bibi becoming PM again is depressingly symbolic of the quagmire that is Israeli politics. There are too many second acts in Israeli life.
The system of party lists and proportional representation system is at the heart of what’s wrong. When I lived there, I grew to absolutely detest it. A system by which each MK represents an actual district– and is held responsible by the voters of that district– could only change things for the better.
| 4 February 2009, 2:36 pm |
Gene,
a better improvement is the Scandavian style “Open list” where the voters get to choose the order of the candidates on the list (similar in effect to STV used in Ireland and once used in New York).
| 4 February 2009, 2:38 pm |
A system by which each MK represents an actual district– and is held responsible by the voters of that district– could only change things for the better.
There’s too much opportunity for gerrymandering. And it encourages a lack of moderation in the representatives from politically homogeneous communities ie. Arab villages, West Bank settlements, Haredi neighborhoods.
| 4 February 2009, 2:40 pm |
a better improvement is the Scandavian style “Open list” where the voters get to choose the order of the candidates on the list (similar in effect to STV used in Ireland and once used in New York).
This would be good, as there are people who I like on the Likud list and also on the Kadima list.
| 4 February 2009, 2:43 pm |
Hadash for me, narrowly over Green Movement-Meimad, but just keep out the far right nutters!
| 4 February 2009, 2:47 pm |
Ohad,
open list wouldn’t do that, you only get to rank the candidates in the list you vote for, full STV does allow that, but you have to have some smaller constuencies, it would be impossible to have an STV race with 100 candidacies available.
| 4 February 2009, 2:49 pm |
There’s too much opportunity for gerrymandering. And it encourages a lack of moderation in the representatives from politically homogeneous communities ie. Arab villages, West Bank settlements, Haredi neighborhoods.
Yes, depending on how districts are drawn. But it would also compel MKs to deal with a variety of issues of actual concern to their constituents, rather than just the one or two issues highlighted by their lists– for which basically nobody holds them to account until the next election.
Besides, the current system doesn’t do much to encourage moderation, does it?
| 4 February 2009, 3:01 pm |
Livni should get herself one of those Golda Meir XL gunboat handbags.
As Kishon wrote, world leaders feared just the look of that handbag.
| 4 February 2009, 3:15 pm |
Go Bibi!
| 4 February 2009, 3:21 pm |
Vote for whoever is going to deal with the illegal squatters.
| 4 February 2009, 3:22 pm |
Livni’s former life in Mossad:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article4791158.ece
A pretty tough cookie.
| 4 February 2009, 3:25 pm |
Are there any libertarian parties – legalisation of marijuana, prostitution, liberalising pornography etc?
| 4 February 2009, 3:39 pm |
When I lived there, I grew to absolutely detest it. A system by which each MK represents an actual district– and is held responsible by the voters of that district– could only change things for the better.
I agree that MKs should represent districts. PR may be problem specifically for Israel, although I would be loathe to dump it altogether. PR generally is a better, more sophisticated system. FPTP is very poor – in the UK it downgrades the votes of millions, making many surplus to requirements. Equal votes are important.
| 4 February 2009, 3:44 pm |
Is it a choice between Tzipi and Bibi?
A little OT….Irrespective of politics, am I the only one around here that finds Tzipi quite attractive?
| 4 February 2009, 3:53 pm |
Vote for whoever is going to deal with the illegal squatters.
Newsflash:
The concerns of Israeli voters do not exactly coincide with those of monomaniacal Jew-bashers worldwide.
| 4 February 2009, 4:00 pm |
A little OT….Irrespective of politics, am I the only one around here that finds Tzipi quite attractive?
You are not alone Nick
| 4 February 2009, 4:05 pm |
Likud’s going to win, you’re going to lose. They’re going to raise the Altalena, fix it up and place it where the (newly bulldozed) Kenesset used to be and then they’re going to trash Ben Gurion’s house in Tel-Aviv and then they’re going to build a new settlement in Damascus and then they’re going to push arabs off bridges, just for kicks!
Well, not really, but they are going to govern like grown-ups and after the unbridled incompetence, corruption and callow short-sightedness of Kadima, it can’t come soon enough.
| 4 February 2009, 4:14 pm |
The way I usually decide, Alex, is this: I ask myself what I want to achieve a) socially/economically and b) politically.
Socially/economically I want a policy which allows as much personal freedom as possible for all kinds of beliefs with a minimum of state intervention in personal life. i.e. I want civil marriage and burial, a separation between state and religion etc. I also want equal rights and opportunities for all citizens of the state and equal obligations too, particularly on the army service/ sherut leumi issue.
Politically I want a government which is going to work towards a lasting peace agreement with all our neighbours, but not a ‘lets just roll over and die’ type of peace.
Then I take into account who is going to make coalition agreements with who, because that’s inevitable.
Clause a) brings me naturally to Meretz, and clause b) brings me usually to the centre/ left (Avuda, Kadima) .
If I vote centre left, I may miss out on the social issues, and bearing in mind that Meretz are more likely to go into a coalition with the centre left than with the right, especially if they get a lot of seats, my vote goes to Meretz.I think it’s particularly important this time around because there will be a natural shift to the right after the recent events, so it is vital to retain balance by pulling to the left.
My children vote Green, but they haven’t had much success so far although I do think they’re interesting.
Mind you-I wouldn’t rule out the fascinating combination of the Holocaust survivors with the legalise cannabis guys!
Oh that British politics were so flamboyant!
Anyway, whatever you eventually decide, the most important thing is to use your vote -enjoy!
| 4 February 2009, 4:25 pm |
if you’re undecided you can always try the Israeli election Compass :)
| 4 February 2009, 4:33 pm |
Mikey – Bibi’s using his so-called economics strengths to benefit his campaign, but it hasn’t been so prominent. Then again, the actual issues rarely are.
Chad – there’s more chance of me winning the Nobel peace prize.
Israelinurse – thanks for the advice…
| 4 February 2009, 4:36 pm |
Nick, Fred…..calm down boys!
| 4 February 2009, 5:27 pm |
Nick and Fred’s comments say more about the women of the United Kingdom than those of Israel, it seems to me ;)
In other stories, Netanyahu’s going to win regardless of what daft softies just off the onion boat like you vote, and thank fuck for that.
| 4 February 2009, 6:16 pm |
I think I’m going to vote Labour. I’ve no idea why.
| 4 February 2009, 6:21 pm |
Thanks Alex,
So basically this election is about one issue and one issue alone – the peace process and surrounding matters?
| 4 February 2009, 6:27 pm |
Basically yes – although the term security is a better one to use.
| 4 February 2009, 9:07 pm |
It’s a shame you don’t have first past the post. Having to pander to wacky fringe groups to form governments has surely been a disaster in Israel?
| 4 February 2009, 9:22 pm |
The Israeli system of special interest parties combined with the recent increase in the required threshold has produced fascinating results. Where else could you have a coalition of the Holocaust Survivors with the pro-marijuana Green Leaf Graduates? This could be the surprise winner. If they took power, it would confuse the hell out of Israel’s opponents.
| 4 February 2009, 9:25 pm |
The Israeli system of special interest parties combined with the recent increase in the required threshold has produced fascinating results. Where else could you have a coalition of the Holocaust Survivors with the pro-marijuana Green Leaf Graduates? This could be the surprise winner. If they took power, it would confuse the hell out of Israel’s opponents.
As an aside, I should add that Tzipi Livni is outclassed by the extremely glamorous Einat Wilf of the Labour party (if this sort of thing influences your vote).
| 4 February 2009, 10:03 pm |
I was going to say Monster Raving Loony Party – but it looks as if they will get into a coalition anyway….
You should vote with your principles – any government will not be very stable and there will be more elections soon. The more pressing issue seems to be to start building an anti-fascist movement
| 4 February 2009, 10:28 pm |
Alex, I can understand your disappointment with Livni, same here, though I would have contemplated voting for her only if I thought Kadima stood a real chance to win, which I don’t think is the case now. As is, it will be almost certainly Bibi, and that’s actually not so bad under the circumstances: the Obama administration will pressure for evacuating outposts and perhaps even “natural growth” in the other settlements; if Bibi was in the opposition, he would raise hell about that, if he is the prime minister, he will only grumble and try to wiggle out of it, but eventually have little choice but to comply (I think and hope). He promised a broad coalition — promises, promises, but I think on this one he can’t really go back. Lieberman you will get whether it’s Bibi or Livni, no way around him, unfortunately. I personally vote Labor, even though I’m not happy with Barak as chairman, though, like pretty much the rest of the country, I do want him as defense minister. However, I think it’s important to strenghten the left in this government, so, since you asked for advice: vote Labor!!! Meretz is the second best option; the Greens are a wasted vote, though I can understand that you are attracted. I’m promising myself for some 20 years now that I will vote for the Greens once we got the big things out of the way… Well, should I live to be 100, maybe I will have a chance.
| 4 February 2009, 10:52 pm |
I’m promising myself for some 20 years now that I will vote for the Greens once we got the big things out of the way… Well, should I live to be 100, maybe I will have a chance.
Yes, it’s interesting to speculate on how Israeli politics would realign if it ever got the big things out of the way.
| 5 February 2009, 1:39 am |
Well Petra, a new poll shows Kadima only 3 seats away from Likud. Not impossible to overcome by any means…
| 5 February 2009, 2:09 am |
Nick, Fred, I also find Livni sexy. And I also think she would make the better Prime Minister than either Barak or Bibi, the Israeli Nixon, both of whom were near-disasters in their terms as Prime Minister.
Not sure if an extra large purse like Golda had would fit with her appearance, but Livni should get some sort of handbag, perhaps something like the one Margaret Thacther had.
Is the Silly Party expected to get any seats in the Knesset?
| 5 February 2009, 10:00 am |
The real question is not really about tactics but about principles: who do I really want and trust in power to represent my country?
The answer is obvious: Holocaust survivors and weed smokers.
I’m going with them: http://ale-yarok.org/english/
| 5 February 2009, 3:19 pm |
I must admit to being more than a little disturbed by the preoccupation with Tsipi Livni’s looks/wardrobe/sex appeal displayed here.
Bet none of you ever made comments like that about Arik.
Seriously – you lot are supposed to be progressive thinkers, proponents of equality and meritocracy, open minded etc.
Does what a female politician looks like really come into the equasion? What about her policies?
No, I’m not a humourless feminist, before anyone starts. Feminist yes, humourless no. I just find it so sad that in the 21st century a woman is still judged on her looks instead of her brain. Even sadder is the fact that many of you have been objecting (rightly) to Islam’s archaic attitudes towards women on this blog recently, but seem blind to your own prejudices.
I guess we still have a long way to go….
| 5 February 2009, 5:17 pm |
Israelinurse: “Bet none of you ever made comments like that (i.e. sex appeal) about Arik.”
Have to confess no, but my Mother, (second generation Italian-American) was quite taken with Sharon. She even got into an arguement with my Dad over him. My Mom’s side of the family tends to admire Strong Men in Uniform on Horseback or nowadays in a Tank. Its sort of a from Caesar to Guiliani tradition. My grandparents use to cheer Mussolini’s pre-war speeches on the radio.
| 5 February 2009, 6:00 pm |
Even though I’m about as far away as one can get from Arik Sharon’s politics and have never forgiven him for telling us that the first Lebanon war was going to be 4 or 5 days of an affair, I am obliged to say that I once met him when he was Minister of Building and Housing and that in the flesh he was quite pleasant and charming. I suppose that’s politicians….
| 5 February 2009, 8:56 pm |
Aha! So it’s OK to say that a man is charming, but not a woman? ;-)
| 5 February 2009, 9:34 pm |
When I was in the US during the presidential campaign, an awful lot of women talked approvingly about Obama’s looks without any qualms. I suspect that there simply aren’t any handsome male Israeli politicians for women to get excited about (actually Netanyahu used to get approving remarks when he first appeared but the years have not been kind – and I doubt that Barak ever won any beauty contests).
| 6 February 2009, 5:36 pm |
I am a supporter of Amir Peretz’s wing of The Labor Party ( He was the last leader of The Labour Party & an ex leader of The Histadrut Israeli Trade Union Movement – He was the first Party leader from a Sephardi background & His policy was to lead a Social Revolution in Israeli society ) unfortunately His leadership was cut short by the fallout from The Second Lebanon War in 2006 . I hope that a Radical wing of Labor regains it’s strength soon .
or them?